Strategy 6 (S6) bet one group winner future per group across all 12 FIFA World Cup 2026 groups — a novel format for a 48-team tournament. The pool wagered $42.08/group ( $505 total, 9 investors) on the non-favorite to win their group outright.
The strategy closed $-281.96 net — hitting 2 of 12 picks (17% hit rate). Both hits were the pool's lowest-odds bets: USA (Group D) at +140 and Colombia (Group K) at +190 — limiting the recovery. Total returned: $223.04 of $505 staked.
Five picks qualified to the Round of 32 as runner-up (Morocco, Canada, Egypt, Croatia, Austria) but the bet required a group win — no partial credit. Uruguay, our +400 pick in Group H, was eliminated outright as Cape Verde improbably drew all three games to steal second place.
All 12 Group Picks
| Grp | Pick | Odds | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | South Korea | +350 | Mexico | ✗ MISS |
| B | Canada | +180 | Switzerland | ✗ MISS |
| C | Morocco | +350 | Brazil | ✗ MISS |
| D | USA | +140 | USA | ✓ HIT |
| E | Ecuador | +350 | Germany | ✗ MISS |
| F | Japan | +250 | Netherlands | ✗ MISS |
| G | Egypt | +400 | Belgium | ✗ MISS |
| H | Uruguay | +400 | Spain | ✗ MISS |
| I | Senegal | +750 | France | ✗ MISS |
| J | Austria | +370 | Argentina | ✗ MISS |
| K | Colombia | +190 | Colombia | ✓ HIT |
| L | Croatia | +320 | England | ✗ MISS |
S6 Investor Payouts
Key Storylines
Rob's Bets LLC Week 3 covered the final group stage matchdays — 32 games played Jun 22–28, the largest single week of the tournament. Groups I–L had both Round 2 and Round 3 land in this window, adding 8 bets vs. a standard final round. The pool deployed $22/game on Goals O/U across a $704 pool with 8 investors. Corners (S2) were suspended after a −33% ROI through two weeks.
The week closed at +$44.48 net. Goals went 18W–14L — a 56.25% hit rate that cleared the vig. S1 non-standard lines did the heavy lifting: por-uzb (+$31.90), jor-arg (+$30.80), and tun-ned (+$25.30) combined for +$88 against two S1 losses (fra-irq, egy-irn). The standard lines went 15W–12L, contributing a modest +$7.49 on 27 bets.
Week 3 concludes the group stage. Rob's Bets LLC achieved a positive ROI in 2 of 3 weeks on Goals — W1 and W3 both profitable, W2 fractionally negative. S6 futures closed separately; see the Group Winners report above.
Week 3 Performance — 32 Games
Game Results Log
| Match | Score | Line | Goals | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia vs Mexico | 0-3 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| South vs South | 1-0 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$16.92 |
| Switzerland vs Canada | 2-1 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar | 3-1 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Scotland vs Brazil | 0-3 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$18.33 |
| Morocco vs Haiti | 4-2 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$12.57 |
| Türkiye vs USA | 3-2 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$16.29 |
| Paraguay vs Australia | 0-0 | OVER 1.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Ecuador vs Germany | 2-1 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$20.00 |
| Curaçao vs Ivory | 0-2 | OVER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Japan vs Sweden | 1-1 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$22.00 |
| Tunisia vs NetherlandsS1 | 1-3 | OVER 3.5 | WIN | +$25.30 |
| Egypt vs IranS1 | 1-1 | UNDER 1.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| New vs Belgium | 1-5 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$13.58 |
| Uruguay vs Spain | 0-1 | OVER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Cape vs Saudi | 0-0 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$17.19 |
| France vs IraqS1 | 3-0 | OVER 3.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Norway vs Senegal | 3-2 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Norway vs France | 1-4 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$19.47 |
| Senegal vs Iraq | 5-0 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$17.19 |
| Argentina vs Austria | 2-0 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$19.13 |
| Jordan vs Algeria | 1-2 | OVER 2.5 | WIN | +$20.00 |
| Jordan vs ArgentinaS1 | 1-3 | OVER 3.5 | WIN | +$30.80 |
| Algeria vs Austria | 3-3 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Portugal vs UzbekistanS1 | 5-0 | OVER 3.5 | WIN | +$31.90 |
| Colombia vs DR | 1-0 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$14.19 |
| Colombia vs Portugal | 0-0 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$16.67 |
| DR vs Uzbekistan | 3-1 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| England vs Ghana | 0-0 | OVER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Panama vs Croatia | 0-1 | UNDER 2.5 | WIN | +$20.95 |
| Panama vs England | 0-2 | OVER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| Croatia vs Ghana | 2-1 | UNDER 2.5 | LOSS | $22.00 |
| TOTAL | 18W–14L | +$44.48 | ||
Week 3 Investor Payouts
Key Storylines
Week 3 Fund Terms
Rob's Bets LLC Week 2 covered 28 group stage matches played Jun 15–21, spanning Groups G–L plus second matchdays for Groups A–F. The pool deployed $22/game on Goals O/U (S1) and $10/game on Corners (S2) — $32/game total across an $896 pool with 8 investors.
The week closed at $95.96 net. Goals went 14W–14L ($54.22) — a 50% hit rate that couldn't overcome the vig. Corners went 12W–16L ($41.74), underperforming for the second straight week. Notable misses: Spain vs Cape Verde (0–0) on a 3.5-line OVER and Brazil vs Haiti (3–0) — three goals short of the Over 3.5. Bright spots: Uruguay vs Cape Verde (+$29.04), Mexico vs South Korea (+$23.79), and Spain vs Saudi Arabia (+$19.13) after a dominant 4–0.
On the futures front, USA won Group D✓ — S6's first confirmed hit at +140. 0group winner futures remain open into the final matchday (Jun 24–27). Week 3 runs Jun 22–28 (32 games, goals only — corners suspended given S2's −33% ROI through two weeks).
Week 2 Performance — 28 Games
Game Results Log
| Match | Score | Goals | P/L | Corners | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia vs South | 1-1 | WIN | +$15.28 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Mexico vs South | 1-0 | WIN | +$23.79 | WIN | +$9.09 |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4-1 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Canada vs Qatar | 6-0 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Scotland vs Morocco | 0-1 | WIN | +$13.58 | WIN | +$9.09 |
| Brazil vs Haiti | 3-0 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| USA vs Australia | 2-0 | LOSS | $22.00 | WIN | +$13.00 |
| Türkiye vs Paraguay | 0-1 | WIN | +$16.67 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Germany vs Ivory | 2-1 | WIN | +$12.94 | WIN | +$10.00 |
| Ecuador vs Curaçao | 0-0 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | 5-1 | WIN | +$13.33 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Tunisia vs Japan | 0-4 | LOSS | $22.00 | WIN | +$9.43 |
| Belgium vs Egypt | 1-1 | WIN | +$17.60 | WIN | +$10.00 |
| Iran vs New | 2-2 | LOSS | $22.00 | WIN | +$13.00 |
| Belgium vs Iran | 0-0 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| New vs Egypt | 1-3 | LOSS | $22.00 | WIN | +$9.09 |
| Spain vs Cape | 0-0 | LOSS | $10.00 | WIN | +$8.47 |
| Saudi vs Uruguay | 1-1 | WIN | +$16.92 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Spain vs Saudi | 4-0 | WIN | +$19.13 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Uruguay vs Cape | 2-2 | WIN | +$29.04 | WIN | +$9.80 |
| France vs Senegal | 3-1 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Iraq vs Norway | 1-4 | WIN | +$12.57 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Argentina vs Algeria | 3-0 | WIN | +$20.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Austria vs Jordan | 3-1 | WIN | +$17.60 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Portugal vs DR | 1-1 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | 1-3 | LOSS | $22.00 | WIN | +$8.20 |
| England vs Croatia | 4-2 | LOSS | $22.00 | LOSS | $10.00 |
| Ghana vs Panama | 1-0 | WIN | +$13.33 | WIN | +$9.09 |
| TOTAL | 14W–14L | $54.22 | 12W–16L | $41.74 | |