📊 WC 2026 Reports
Full knockout campaign · S1 Goals O/U · S7 BTTS · Strategy review
🎯 Strategy Framework — What We Tested
S1: Goals Over/Under 2.5–3.5
Primary signal: group-stage scoring rate (both teams 1.5+ goals/game → lean OVER). Knockout adjustment: heavy favorites (-300+) → UNDER (they win 1-0 or 2-0, not 4-0).
High-confidence signals: Non-standard lines (1.5, 3.5+), massive mismatches (-300+), clean sheet teams (2+/3 shutouts)
Chalk lines to skip: -120 to -175 juice with no special edge
S7: Both Teams to Score (BTTS Yes/No)
Original rule (GROUP STAGE): count BTTS rate + clean sheet record. KNOCKOUT UPDATE (Jun 29): BTTS YES is the default in all but 3 conditions.
BTTS NO only if ALL three: Underdog scored 0–1 goals entire group stage AND favorite priced -300+ AND model avg goals <1.5
Otherwise: BTTS YES. Most teams attack even in defeat; cheap yes odds (-110 to -105) have value
⛔ S2: Corners Market — RETIRED
Group stage -33% ROI. Too much random variance. Skip entirely in 2030.
S1 Overall
12–9
+15.4% ROI
S7 Overall
15–6
+26.7% ROI
Campaign
27–15
+21.2% ROI
✓ What Worked
- ✓ Non-standard lines (book sets line for reason)
- ✓ Mismatch rule: -300+ favorite → UNDER (60%+ WR)
- ✓ Clean sheet NO: team 2+/3 CS → BTTS NO (75%+ WR)
- ✓ BTTS YES default in knockouts (67% WR, +$169 net)
- ✓ Group-stage scoring rate as S1 signal
✗ What Failed
- ✗ Chalk lines (-120 to -175) without edge
- ✗ Coin-flip OVER chasing (50% WR)
- ✗ BTTS NO without 2+/3 clean sheets
- ✗ Blowout chasing in R16 (assumed 4-0s)
- ✗ Corners market (S2) entirely
📌 For 2030 Tournament
Keep: S1 non-standard lines, mismatch rule, clean sheet signals, group-stage scoring rate, BTTS YES default, stake scaling by confidence
Abandon: Corners entirely, chalk lines, coin-flip OVER
Improve: Double stake on ★★★★★ signals (non-standard + -300+), add method-of-victory props, cross-tournament form/coaching changes
⚽ Round of 16
COMPLETEJul 4–7 · 6 games · S1 $45 / S7 $45S1 Goals
50%
3W–3L
+9.8% ROI
S7 BTTS
83%
5W–1L
+78.8% ROI
Combined
67%
8W–4L
+44.3% ROI
Net ROI
+44.3%
6/6 settled
Direction Breakdown
S1 — Goals O/U
OVER2W–2L · 50%
UNDER1W–1L · 50%
S7 — BTTS
BTTS YES2W–1L · 67%
BTTS NO3W–0L · 100%
Game-by-Game
| Game | Score | S1 | S1 ROI | S7 | S7 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs Morocco UNDER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 0-3 | L | -204.5% | W | +150.0% |
| France vs Paraguay UNDER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 1-0 | W | +236.4% | W | +95.5% |
| Brazil vs Norway OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 1-2 | W | +150.0% | W | +127.3% |
| Mexico vs England OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 2-3 | W | +286.4% | W | +204.5% |
| Spain vs Portugal OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 1-0 | L | -204.5% | L | -204.5% |
| USA vs Belgium OVER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 0-2 | L | -204.5% | W | +100.0% |
Key Trends — R16
▸S7 (BTTS) dominated at 83% — every favorite that controlled possession kept a clean sheet; every open game saw both teams score
▸Mismatch rule 2-for-2 — FRA -300 and MEX home-crowd edge both went UNDER regulation scoring; big favorites win cleanly not wildly
▸Open matchups delivered for S1 — BRA-NOR (3 goals) and MEX-ENG (5 goals) were the two biggest S1 winners; both had coin-flip ML odds
▸S1 OVER on lopsided games failed — ESP-POR (1-0) was the one case where an attacking rivalry stayed cagey in knockout format
▸CAN-MAR (-155 UNDER) was the only bad call — Morocco's 3 goals came from an unexpected attacking burst; Canada collapsed after red card
🏆 Round of 32
COMPLETEJun 28–Jul 3 · 15 games · S1 $25 / S7 $25S1 Goals
60%
9W–6L
+16.3% ROI
S7 BTTS
67%
10W–5L
+17.3% ROI
Combined
63%
19W–11L
+16.8% ROI
Net ROI
+16.8%
15/15 settled
Direction Breakdown
S1 — Goals O/U
OVER6W–5L · 55%
UNDER3W–1L · 75%
S7 — BTTS
BTTS YES6W–2L · 75%
BTTS NO4W–3L · 57%
Game-by-Game
| Game | Score | S1 | S1 ROI | S7 | S7 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs Japan OVER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 2-1 | W | +92% | L | -88% |
| Germany vs Paraguay UNDER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 1-1 (PEN) | W | +164% | L | -100% |
| Netherlands vs Morocco OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 1-1 (PEN) | L | -88% | W | +68% |
| Ivory Coast vs Norway OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 1-2 | W | +76% | W | +64% |
| France vs Sweden OVER 3.5 · BTTS YES | 3-0 | L | -88% | L | -88% |
| Mexico vs Ecuador UNDER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 2-0 | W | +60% | W | +68% |
| England vs Congo DR UNDER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 2-1 | L | -80% | W | +76% |
| Belgium vs Senegal OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 3-2 AET | W | +76% | W | +84% |
| USA vs Bosnia OVER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 2-0 | L | -88% | W | +76% |
| Spain vs Austria OVER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 3-0 | W | +64% | W | +60% |
| Portugal vs Croatia OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 2-1 | W | +104% | W | +80% |
| Switzerland vs Algeria OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 2-0 | L | -88% | L | -88% |
| Argentina vs Cabo Verde OVER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 3-2 AET | W | +64% | L | -100% |
| Colombia vs Ghana UNDER 2.5 · BTTS NO | 1-0 | W | +76% | W | +60% |
| Australia vs Egypt OVER 2.5 · BTTS YES | 1-1 (PEN) | L | -100% | W | +88% |
Key Trends — R32
▸UNDER on heavy favorites went 3-for-3 — GER-PAR, MEX-ECU, COL-GHA all hit; defensive knockout mentality is real, especially vs low-ceiling underdogs
▸S7 YES hit 75% — the BTTS YES default rule (adopted after going 0-2 on NO early) immediately paid off; 6W-2L on YES calls
▸OVER on open matchups split 50/50 — BEL-SEN, POR-CRO, CIV-NOR delivered; FRA-SWE, USA-BIH, SUI-ALG did not (France 3-0, USA 2-0 clean sheets)
▸S7 NO was tougher to call — 4W-3L; Paraguay and Japan both scored vs consensus-favorite opponents, costing early NO calls
▸Penalty shootouts were net neutral — GER-PAR and AUS-EGY both went to PKs; S1 UNDER won on GER-PAR (1-1 reg = UNDER 2.5 ✓), S1 OVER lost on AUS-EGY (1-1 reg = UNDER 2.5 ✗)
WC 2026 Knockout Campaign — Combined
S1 Win Rate
57%
12W–9L
S7 Win Rate
71%
15W–6L
Combined
64%
27W–15L
Overall Campaign ROI
+24.0%
R32 + R16 combined · 21 games